War Size Distribution: Empirical Regularities Behind Conflicts

This paper analyses the statistical distribution of war sizes. Using a new methodology we find moderate support for a Pareto-type distribution (power law), considering data from different sources (COW and UCDP) and periods. A power law is a plausible model for the size distribution of a pool of all wars and a sample of wars in many years, although the log-normal distribution is a plausible alternative model that we cannot reject. The random growth of conflicts could generate both types of distribution. We study the growth rates of battle deaths and random growth cannot be rejected for most of the distribution, although the results also reveal a clear decreasing pattern; the growth of deaths declines faster if the number of initial deaths is greater.     

考虑弹体动态特性的非奇异有限时间制导律

为满足导弹拦截机动目标时交会角约束和有限时间收敛的需求,建立了考虑弹体一阶动态特性的制导模型。把目标加速度视为有界外界干扰,同时结合非线性反步设计法中的动态面法,设计一种考虑弹体动态延迟的非奇异滑模制导律,并且证明了基于Lyapunov稳定性理论制导系统状态可渐进收敛到零。在所设计的制导律下,对单侧机动的低空高速目标进行仿真。仿真结果表明所设计的非奇异制导律可以有效降低弹体动态延迟带来的影响,而且具有较低的脱靶量与交会角误差;与考虑弹体动态特性和交会角约束的最优导引律相比,其具有更高的制导精度。     

Verification and validation of detonation modeling

The mathematical model used to describe the detonation multi-physics phenomenon is usually given by highly coupled nonlinear partial differential equations. Numerical simulation and the computer aided engineering (CAE) technique has become the third pillar of detonation research, along with theory and experiment, due to the detonation phenomenon is difficult to explain by the theoretical analysis, and the cost required to accredit the reliability of detonation products is very high, even some physical experiments of detonation are impossible. The numerical simulation technique can solve these complex problems in the real situation repeatedly and reduce the design cost and time stunningly. But the reliability of numerical simulation software and the serviceability of the computational result seriously hinders the extension, application and the self-restoration of the simulation software, restricts its independently innovational ability. This article deals with the physical modeling, numerical simulation, and software development of detonation in a unified way. Verification and validation and uncertainty quantification (V&V&UQ) is an important approach in ensuring the credibility of the modeling and simulation of detonation. V&V of detonation is based on our independently developed detonation multi-physics software-LAD2D. We propose the verification method based on mathematical theory and program function as well as availability of its program execution. Validation is executed by comparing with the experiment data. At last, we propose the future prospect of numerical simulation software and the CAE technique, and we also pay attention to the research direction of V&V&UQ.     

改进幂指数趋近律的航空发动机模糊滑模控制

针对滑模变结构控制趋近运动不具有鲁棒性的问题,提出了一种基于改进幂指数趋近律的航空发动机模糊滑模控制策略。采用一种参数模糊自调节的时变滑模面,"主动迎上"系统状态轨迹,而不是被动等待系统状态轨迹落在滑模面上,缩短趋近运动时间,提高控制器的鲁棒性;并提出了一种改进的幂指数趋近律,进一步削弱抖振。仿真结果表明,所设计的控制器取得了令人满意的控制效果,能有效地抑制干扰和参数不确定性的影响,削弱抖振。     

线性唯象传热规律下热机内可逆热经济学研究

对符合线性唯象传热规律(q∝Δ(T-1))的热机内可逆热经济学做了进一步研究,导出了在给定条件下Novikov热机的最优利润解析式,并得到了最优利润和相应的效率同其它参数间的关系.     

稀薄流高超声速飞行器气动加热耦合计算

针对稀薄流域高超声速飞行器的气动加热问题,开展耦合数值计算研究。通过引入牛顿冷却定律,将直接模拟蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法与结构传热计算方法相结合,设计一种可对全机外形进行气动热和结构传热计算的高效松耦合方法,实现飞行器防热层结构材料温度分布特性的数值模拟。在以钝锥外形为例对直接模拟蒙特卡洛数值模拟程序进行验证的基础上,采用该方法对X37B轨道飞行器外形长时加热与结构传热过程进行数值模拟,给出结构温度及热流密度随飞行时间的变化规律。研究结果表明,设计的耦合计算方法能够模拟稀薄流域高超声速飞行器的气动加热及结构传热耦合过程,可为该类飞行器的气动热分析及热防护设计提供技术支持。     

关公人物形象的多角度阐释

本文在运用辩证唯物主义和历史唯物主义研究关公人物形象的同时，也用“二律背反”的哲学观点观照他，历史并辩证地剖析了关公思想及行为中均可以论证但又相互背反的三对命题，从而对关公人物形象有了更加立体、丰富的审美剖析，并从哲学的角度提出了关公悲剧诞生的根本原因。     

岩土材料损伤演化规律研究

损伤演化规律是损伤本构理论研究的核心问题，已有的岩土损伤演化方程还存在很多问题，因而给出一个具有理论依据的损伤演化方程具有十分重要的意义。对当前岩土材料损伤演化规律的研究进行了总结分析，认为利用能量耗散原理建立损伤演化方程是一个可行的办法。从损伤是耗散能量的过程这一基本性质出发，建立了一个适用于结构性土体的损伤演化方程。     

末制导段比例导引法的改进

为了消除比例导引法末制导段的各种干扰因素,抑制法向过载的跳动,基于广义卡尔曼滤波多步估计理论,提出了将拦截导弹直接向瞬时遭遇点导引的末制导导引方法,并进行了计算机仿真.仿真结果表明,该方法可以明显消除或减小末制导段比例导引律的各种干扰因素,抑制法向过载的跳动,改善末制导的弹道特性,减小脱靶量,缩短拦截时间.     

考虑落角约束与驾驶仪特性的自适应RBF空间末制导律

为使大口径舰炮制导炮弹在打击近岸机动目标的末制导段满足落角约束,现考虑自动驾驶仪动态特性,基于自适应RBF逼近网络与动态面滑模提出一种空间末制导律。构建空间弹目相对运动模型,通过带改进微分跟踪器的扩张状态观测器估计目标加速度。为零化视线角跟踪误差与视线角速率,采用自适应指数趋近律设计非奇异终端滑模动态面,并运用自适应RBF逼近网络削弱控制指令抖振。通过Lyapunov第二法证明了全系统中视线角跟踪误差与视线角速率均最终一致有界。仿真实验表明：该末制导律使制导炮弹在空间中打击具有不同机动形式的近岸目标时,均具备良好的末制导性能。